CAREER: An integrative framework for modeling coral adaptive potential

NSF Award Search · 01002526DB NSF RESEARCH & RELATED ACTIVIT · $999,997 · view on nsf.gov ↗

Abstract

The survival of coral reef ecosystems depends on their capacity to adapt to rapidly warming oceans. This project aims to understand and predict these critical adaptation processes by developing predictive tools for coral reef conservation while creating educational pathways in marine science. Through workshops, internships, and public education programs at the Hawaiʻi Institute of Marine Biology, this research engages students and community members in understanding how corals may adapt to changing environments. These educational initiatives focus on student mentorship and training, while research outcomes directly inform conservation strategies to protect reef ecosystems for future generations. This research aims to develop a mechanistic theoretical framework that models coral adaptation by integrating three key mechanisms: larval connectivity between reefs, genetic adaptation of coral hosts, and dynamics of their symbiotic algae. The project will construct a series of mathematical models spanning multiple scales, from within-host symbiont communities to reef-network connectivity patterns. These models will quantify how different coral and symbiont characteristics influence adaptation patterns across reef networks under various climate scenarios. The framework can be applied to Hawaiian coral reefs using local oceanographic data to assess their adaptive potential through 2100. Model predictions aim to identify vulnerable coral species and reef areas, as well as potential r

Key facts

NSF award ID
2443233
Awardee
University of Hawaii (HI)
SAM.gov UEI
NSCKLFSSABF2
PI
Lisa C McManus
Primary program
01002526DB NSF RESEARCH & RELATED ACTIVIT
All programs
EXP PROG TO STIM COMP RES, INTERDISCIPLINARY PROPOSALS, POPULATION DYNAMICS, Coral Reefs, CAREER-Faculty Erly Career Dev, MATHEMATICAL BIOLOGY
Estimated total
$999,997
Funds obligated
$999,997
Transaction type
Standard Grant
Period
07/01/2025 → 06/30/2030