Dynamics of contrasting pattern formation of thermocline and mixed layer temperature in the Pacific Ocean across interannual, decadal and climate change timescales

NSF Award Search · 01002526DB NSF RESEARCH & RELATED ACTIVIT · $687,689 · view on nsf.gov ↗

Abstract

The Pacific Ocean is a key region for coupled atmosphere-ocean phenomena that influence global climate across different timescales. Currently, seasonal-to-interannual climate predictions predominantly rely on forecasting El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) while there are emerging efforts on Pacific-rim decadal predictions based on forecasting phases of Pacific Decadal Variability (PDV). In turn global climate change projections hinge on predicting forced changes in the tropical Pacific. On this, however, there is substantial disagreement between models which favor a reduced zonal sea surface temperature gradient and observations which show an increase. The discrepancy reduces confidence in models’ future projections; the differences are critical for associated regional climate change, tropical cyclone behavior and climate sensitivity. By integrating observational analyses, theoretical demonstrations, and model experiments, this research will significantly advance our fundamental understanding of key aspects of Pacific dynamics. The gained understanding is essential for reconciling why climate models struggle to simulate historical trends in the tropical Pacific Ocean and how the models can be improved so as to provide more reliable and accurate predictions and projections of regional climate change and the rate of global warming. The lead investigator is an early career researcher and this work will advance her career focused on the ocean’s role in climate variability and ch

Key facts

NSF award ID
2445981
Awardee
Columbia University (NY)
SAM.gov UEI
F4N1QNPB95M4
PI
Richard Seager
Primary program
01002526DB NSF RESEARCH & RELATED ACTIVIT
All programs
Estimated total
$687,689
Funds obligated
$687,689
Transaction type
Standard Grant
Period
08/15/2025 → 07/31/2028