# Collaborative Research: Developing a Theoretical Framework for Information to Support Climate Risk Management and Adaptation

> **NSF 01002526DB NSF RESEARCH & RELATED ACTIVIT** · Columbia University (NY) · $577,535

## Abstract

Weather and climate have substantial impacts on human activity and the economy, among them damage to life and property from extreme weather. To manage these impacts and mitigate their harms -- to do "adaptation", in other words -- it is helpful to assess the risks ahead of time, by estimating the probabilities of impactful events and how costly they might be. Such risk assessment is practiced in multiple sectors and fields including the insurance industry, infrastructure planning, agriculture, public health, and so on. Yet the methods, data, tools and models differ across sectors, particularly in the extent to which and ways in which they account for possible changes in risk driven by changes in climate. Historical data by itself does not adequately capture such changes; climate models can, in principle, do better, but they bring in additional uncertainties and possible errors. Researchers and actors in different sectors make different choices about how to handle the trade-offs involved in using model simulations versus historical observations, in part because of differences in the impacts that matter to them.  But it is not always clear how they decide what trade-offs to make, or if the trade-offs they make are the best possible choices.

This project seeks to develop a general framework for assessing the value added by using climate model output to inform decision-making for weather and climate risk.  The work applies a theoretical framework from economics in which the va

## Key facts

- **NSF award ID:** 2446812
- **Awardee organization:** Columbia University (NY)
- **SAM.gov UEI:** F4N1QNPB95M4
- **PI:** Adam H Sobel
- **Primary program:** 01002526DB NSF RESEARCH & RELATED ACTIVIT
- **All programs:** —
- **Estimated total:** $577,535
- **Funds obligated:** $577,535
- **Transaction type:** Standard Grant
- **Period:** 09/01/2025 → 08/31/2028

## Primary source

NSF Award Search: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2446812

## Citation

> US National Science Foundation, Award 2446812, Collaborative Research: Developing a Theoretical Framework for Information to Support Climate Risk Management and Adaptation. Retrieved via AI Analytics 2026-06-08 from https://api.ai-analytics.org/grant/nsf/2446812. Licensed CC0.

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