# Understanding the Congo Droughts: The Role of Soil Moisture-Precipitation Feedbacks

> **NSF 01002526DB NSF RESEARCH & RELATED ACTIVIT** · SUNY at Albany (NY) · $695,079

## Abstract

The Congo rainforest, the driest and second largest rainforest on Earth, has experienced a widespread and long-term drying trend, with more intense and frequent droughts over the past four decades. Extended droughts have significantly warmed and dried the land surface, reduced forest productivity, lengthened the dry season, and increased the risk of forest fires and biomass burning in the region. These changes, if continued, could alter the composition and structure of the Congolese rainforest, impact biodiversity and carbon storage, and have long-term environmental, societal, and economic implications.  A surprising fact about the Congo drying trend is that the reductions in precipitation (P) have been accompanied by increases in thunderstorm activity over the region.  The increase in thunderstorms is counterintuitive since most of the rainfall in the Congo comes from thunderstorms, thus one would expect thunderstorms and P to increase or decrease in tandem. The mechanisms driving this counterintuitive relationship, termed the “Congo P paradox”, remain unknown. 

Research conducted here follows the working hypothesis that the ultimate cause of the Congo drying trend is changes in surface temperature over the Indian and Pacific Oceans, but the intensity and duration of droughts is increased by local feedbacks between soil moisture (SM) and P. Furthermore, the opposing trends in P and thunderstorm activity occur because the increases in the most intense thunderstorms, also c

## Key facts

- **NSF award ID:** 2505219
- **Awardee organization:** SUNY at Albany (NY)
- **SAM.gov UEI:** NHH3T1Z96H29
- **PI:** Liming Zhou
- **Primary program:** 01002526DB NSF RESEARCH & RELATED ACTIVIT
- **All programs:** —
- **Estimated total:** $695,079
- **Funds obligated:** $695,079
- **Transaction type:** Standard Grant
- **Period:** 09/01/2025 → 08/31/2028

## Primary source

NSF Award Search: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2505219

## Citation

> US National Science Foundation, Award 2505219, Understanding the Congo Droughts: The Role of Soil Moisture-Precipitation Feedbacks. Retrieved via AI Analytics 2026-06-08 from https://api.ai-analytics.org/grant/nsf/2505219. Licensed CC0.

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