# Advancing Public Literacy of Uncertainty in Science in the Context of Simulation-based North Atlantic Storm Forecasting

> **NSF 04002526DB NSF STEM Education** · Concord Consortium (MA) · $1,992,383

## Abstract

North Atlantic storms--such as hurricanes and Nor'easters--disrupt lives and impose significant burdens on coastal communities. Residents in these regions rely on storm forecasts to assess risk and decide on protective actions. To inform the public, news and social media outlets frequently use scientific visualizations--such as cones of uncertainty and spaghetti plots--to communicate storm trajectories and potential impacts. However, these visualizations are difficult for most adults to interpret, largely because they do not specify the exact time and location the storm is expected to reach in the future. This project addresses the need to improve public understanding of the uncertainties embedded in storm forecasts and visualizations by leveraging online simulations. The project team plans to build the North Atlantic Storm (NAS) Explorer that would allow participants to use interactive, web-based simulation to explore future paths of a storm in various scenarios based on the storm's real-time data. 

This project seeks to enhance public literacy in North Atlantic storm forecasting through a simulation-based experience that replicates key aspects of the scientists' storm modeling and forecasting practices. Adult participants will be engaged across three research studies. The first study focuses on developing survey instruments to measure Uncertainty Literacy in Atlantic Forecasting (ULAF), targeting three constructs: (1) interpreting probabilistic storm visualizations (e

## Key facts

- **NSF award ID:** 2517113
- **Awardee organization:** Concord Consortium (MA)
- **SAM.gov UEI:** FY85DRNMJAM4
- **PI:** Hee-Sun Lee
- **Primary program:** 04002526DB NSF STEM Education
- **All programs:** PPSR- Public Participation in Scientific
- **Estimated total:** $1,992,383
- **Funds obligated:** $1,992,383
- **Transaction type:** Standard Grant
- **Period:** 09/15/2025 → 08/31/2028

## Primary source

NSF Award Search: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2517113

## Citation

> US National Science Foundation, Award 2517113, Advancing Public Literacy of Uncertainty in Science in the Context of Simulation-based North Atlantic Storm Forecasting. Retrieved via AI Analytics 2026-06-08 from https://api.ai-analytics.org/grant/nsf/2517113. Licensed CC0.

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