# Collaborative Research: eMB: The immunological signature of a changing world: mathematical models to infer historical patterns of infectious disease

> **NSF 01002526DB NSF RESEARCH & RELATED ACTIVIT** · Regents of the University of Idaho (ID) · $224,888

## Abstract

Spillover of infectious diseases from wildlife to humans and livestock is a pervasive risk to the health and welfare of human populations around the world. Effective management of this risk is facilitated by early detection of changes in the frequency of spillover events.  This research will develop new mathematical models and statistical methods that allow changes in the rate of spillover to be detected from the fossil record of past infection that remains imprinted on human and animal immune systems. The general methodology developed by this project will be rigorously tested using simulated data and applied to Rift Valley fever virus, a pathogen that poses a high risk of global expansion with potentially devastating consequences for human health and agriculture. Work on this project will train students in cutting edge mathematical and statistical methods and support an international workshop where software developed by the project will be introduced and instruction on its use provided.  
 
Predicting how zoonotic infectious diseases change over time is a fundamentally important challenge with few general mathematical solutions. Central to addressing this problem is disentangling historical changes in the rate or “force” of spillover from background biological processes, such as age-specific infection and wanning immunity, which can cloak or mimic the signal of temporal change. Existing statistical methods to infer historical changes in the force of spillover for zoonotic 

## Key facts

- **NSF award ID:** 2527135
- **Awardee organization:** Regents of the University of Idaho (ID)
- **SAM.gov UEI:** QWYKRJH5NNJ3
- **PI:** Scott L Nuismer
- **Primary program:** 01002526DB NSF RESEARCH & RELATED ACTIVIT
- **All programs:** EXP PROG TO STIM COMP RES
- **Estimated total:** $224,888
- **Funds obligated:** $224,888
- **Transaction type:** Standard Grant
- **Period:** 09/15/2025 → 08/31/2028

## Primary source

NSF Award Search: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2527135

## Citation

> US National Science Foundation, Award 2527135, Collaborative Research: eMB: The immunological signature of a changing world: mathematical models to infer historical patterns of infectious disease. Retrieved via AI Analytics 2026-06-08 from https://api.ai-analytics.org/grant/nsf/2527135. Licensed CC0.

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