{"url_path":"/weather/alerts/2.49.0.1.840.0.4c74074aa75d5054ca43d961adc9c0bb1ddd018c.001.1","section_key":"alert","section_title":"Hydrologic Outlook issued July 15 at 2:54PM MDT by NWS Grand Junction CO","topic":"weather","document":{"doc_type":"alert","doc_date":"2026-07-15","source_url":"https://api.weather.gov/alerts/urn%3Aoid%3A2.49.0.1.840.0.4c74074aa75d5054ca43d961adc9c0bb1ddd018c.001.1","accession_number":null,"cik":null,"ticker":null,"issuer_name":null,"edgar_url":null,"primary_entity_key":null,"primary_entity_name":"NWS Grand Junction CO"},"word_count":357,"has_tables":false,"body_markdown":"# Hydrologic Outlook: Hydrologic Outlook issued July 15 at 2:54PM MDT by NWS Grand Junction CO\n\n**Severity:** Unknown\n**Certainty:** Possible\n**Urgency:** Future\n**Areas:** Archuleta, CO; Dolores, CO; Gunnison, CO; Hinsdale, CO; La Plata, CO; Montezuma, CO; Montrose, CO; Ouray, CO; San Juan, CO; San Miguel, CO; Grand, UT; San Juan, UT\n**Issued by:** NWS Grand Junction CO\n**Sent:** 2026-07-15T14:54:00-06:00\n**Effective:** 2026-07-15T14:54:00-06:00\n**Expires:** 2026-07-16T15:00:00-06:00\n\n## Description\nESFGJT\n\nAn anomalous plume of moisture continues to rotate into Utah and\nwestern Colorado this afternoon, as an elongated area of high\npressure shifts into the southwestern CONUS. For today, steering\nwinds overhead are northerly, providing a unique storm motion for\nthe GJT forecast area. In addition, our southern zones and most of\neastern Utah contain higher amounts of moisture, so as storms\ngenerally build and shift south, they're moving into juicier\nenvironments.\n\nEven though this source of moisture is a great relief to the drought\nstricken West, excessive rainfall returns the concerns of flash\nflooding and debris flows over recent (or even on going) burn scars.\n18Z's sounding also shows weak flow throughout the atmospheric\ncolumn, which will result in slow moving thunderstorms this\nafternoon. The combination of increased moisture and slow storm\nmotion further elevates the concern for excessive rainfall in\nlocalized areas. The San Juan's are a bullseye in precipitation\nforecasts over the next several days, maintaining flood threats\nredeveloping each afternoon. Due to the prolonged period of\nanomalously high moisture, over areas with sensitive burn scars, we\nwant to emphasize the potential for flash flooding and debris flows\nin this regime. We're expecting an uptick in moisture content across\nthe entire region on Thursday, which favors a higher likelihood of\nwetting rain with bursts of heavy rain in localized storms.\n\nFor 2026 fires, we have yet to test their susceptibility to handle\nrainfall. Therefore, we want to increase our messaging of the\npotential hazards at play downstream nearby fires. Keep an eye on\nour forecasts through the end of the week and stay tuned for updated\nhydro alerts if visiting or if you reside below vulnerable terrain\nto flash flooding and/or debris flows. Storms across the west\ndevelop quickly, leaving little room for lead time in flashy\nterrain."}