{"url_path":"/weather/alerts/2.49.0.1.840.0.5506ccc9612d58b14014a6afdd0689e452d8f7df.001.1","section_key":"alert","section_title":"Special Weather Statement issued July 3 at 12:07AM ChST by NWS Tiyan GU","topic":"weather","document":{"doc_type":"alert","doc_date":"2026-07-03","source_url":"https://api.weather.gov/alerts/urn%3Aoid%3A2.49.0.1.840.0.5506ccc9612d58b14014a6afdd0689e452d8f7df.001.1","accession_number":null,"cik":null,"ticker":null,"issuer_name":null,"edgar_url":null,"primary_entity_key":null,"primary_entity_name":"NWS Tiyan GU"},"word_count":512,"has_tables":false,"body_markdown":"# Special Weather Statement: Special Weather Statement issued July 3 at 12:07AM ChST by NWS Tiyan GU\n\n**Severity:** Moderate\n**Certainty:** Observed\n**Urgency:** Expected\n**Areas:** Guam; Rota; Tinian; Saipan\n**Issued by:** NWS Tiyan GU\n**Sent:** 2026-07-03T00:07:00+10:00\n**Effective:** 2026-07-03T00:07:00+10:00\n**Expires:** 2026-07-03T12:15:00+10:00\n\n## Description\nTropical Storm Bavi (09W) is currently organizing to the north of\nPohnpei near 11.9N 158.5E, or roughly 930 miles east of Guam, 885\nmiles east-southeast of Saipan. TS Bavi is moving west-northwest\nat 15 mph. Satellite imagery depicts a very broad, strengthening\nstorm with deep convection becoming well-consolidated around the\ncenter. Maximum sustained winds are 60 mph, and the latest\nforecast from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) shows TS\nBavi strengthening to a typhoon within 24 hours, with maximum\nsustained winds increasing to 90 mph.\n\nBavi is forecast to continue strengthening over the next few days\nas it moves west-northwest toward the Marianas, potentially\narriving to the islands as a strong Category 4, or even Category 5\ntyphoon, with forecasted maximum sustained winds of 155 mph.\nModel guidance continues to support an eventual track somewhere\nbetween Rota and Tinian, but certainty on the exact path through\nthe Marianas remains low. Bavi could potentially pass anywhere\nfrom south of Guam to north of Anatahan in the northern CNMI, and\nthere will be adjustments to the forecast track, and timing, in\nthe coming days. Tropical Storm Bavi may arrive to the Marianas\nsometime around late Sunday through Monday, but be prepared for\nchanges in the expected time of arrival if Bavi speeds up, or\nslows down.\n\nBased on the current forecast, conditions may start to\ndeteriorate across the Marianas sometime late Saturday or early\nSunday as Bavi starts to close in. The Marianas should make\npreparations for the potential for tropical storm or typhoon-force\nwinds, with the current forecast suggesting tropical storm\nconditions may begin sometime on Sunday.\n\nWidespread heavy rainfall is likely to accompany Tropical Storm\nBavi during its passage through the Marianas. Rainfall totals from\nisland to island will greatly depend on the eventual storm track,\nbut current model ensemble guidance supports a range of rainfall\ntotals from 6 to 11 inches across the Marianas. Locally higher\namounts will be possible, and current guidance suggests rainfall\ntotals could approach 15 inches closer to the center. There is\nstill plenty of uncertainty in forecasted rainfall totals with\nBavi still around 72 hours out, but prepare for the likelihood of\nheavy rainfall capable of producing localized flooding.\n\nSeas will build prior to and during Bavi's passage. Seas are\ncurrently forecast to increase to between 25 to 35 feet over\nMarianas coastal waters during Bavi's passage, possibly\napproaching 40 feet near Bavi's center.\n\nPrepare for the potential of significant coastal inundation with a\nstrong typhoon passage through the Marianas. Surf may begin to\nexceed 20 feet as Bavi arrives, with inundation heights\npotentially exceeding 7 feet over wider reefs.\n\nFor more information on Tropical Storm Bavi, please refer to the\nTropical Cyclone Public Advisory issued by the National Weather\nService under WMO header WTPQ31 PGUM and the Tropical Cyclone Warning\nissued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center under WMO header WTPN31\nPGTW."}