{"url_path":"/weather/alerts/2.49.0.1.840.0.ce67801ec73048f07c44dd0418c6a50edd1c8fdc.001.1","section_key":"alert","section_title":"Hydrologic Outlook issued September 25 at 2:21PM MDT by NWS Grand Junction CO","topic":"weather","document":{"doc_type":"alert","doc_date":"2026-09-25","source_url":"https://api.weather.gov/alerts/urn%3Aoid%3A2.49.0.1.840.0.ce67801ec73048f07c44dd0418c6a50edd1c8fdc.001.1","accession_number":null,"cik":null,"ticker":null,"issuer_name":null,"edgar_url":null,"primary_entity_key":null,"primary_entity_name":"NWS Grand Junction CO"},"word_count":383,"has_tables":false,"body_markdown":"# Hydrologic Outlook: Hydrologic Outlook issued September 25 at 2:21PM MDT by NWS Grand Junction CO\n\n**Severity:** Unknown\n**Certainty:** Possible\n**Urgency:** Future\n**Areas:** Archuleta, CO; Dolores, CO; Gunnison, CO; Hinsdale, CO; La Plata, CO; Montezuma, CO; Ouray, CO; San Juan, CO; San Miguel, CO; Grand, UT; San Juan, UT\n**Issued by:** NWS Grand Junction CO\n**Sent:** 2026-09-25T14:21:00-06:00\n**Effective:** 2026-09-25T14:21:00-06:00\n**Expires:** 2026-09-30T06:00:00-06:00\n\n## Description\nESFGJT\n\nIn the wake of today's precipitation, our attention will turn to the\nEastern Pacific. Tropical moisture is anticipated to spread across\nthe Desert Southwest early next week, drawing moisture from a pair of\nHurricanes; Odalys and Polo. The forecast becomes increasing complex\ndue to a closed low currently forecast to drive across the Southwest\nCONUS as Hurricane Polo approaches the Baja California Peninsula.\nStrong southerly winds ahead of the low are expected to pull tropical\nmoisture towards eastern Utah and western Colorado as early as Monday\nmorning. The challenge and uncertainty in our precipitation forecast\nincrease as the week progresses and the low traverses our southern\nStates. Excessive rainfall is most probable over AZ and NM, attm, but\nthe northerly extent poses a threat to our southern San Juan river\nbasins. Current forecasts suggests 1 to 3 inches of rain over Monday\nmorning through Wednesday. At face value, rivers and tributaries will\nsee a bump up due to said moisture. However, localized heavier\namounts could result in minor flooding across the southern San Juan\nfoothills and communities further downstream.\n\nRivers have responded rapidly to recent rainfall due to saturated\nsoils and increased runoff potential. Thus, prolonged periods of\nadditional rainfall over these regions would trigger a similar\nresponse. The current precipitation forecast suggests larger peaks in\nseveral creeks and rivers than what has been observed over the\nprevious 7 days. However, high end probabilistic rainfall amounts\n(i.e. above 90th percentile) may lead to rivers exceeding action\nstage to minor flooding. Most probable basins to see significant\nrises include; the Rio Blanco, San Juan, Piedra, Los Pinos/Vallecito\nCreek, and the Animas River Basins.\n\nConvective storms and periods of heavy rainfall fed from said\ntropical moisture could result in localized flooding impacts across\nthe CWA, however, confidence decreases rapidly north of the San\nJuans. Please continue to monitor the forecast as these systems\nevolve. Especially for those who reside and/or plan to recreate in\nthe southwest quadrant of the forecast area."}