Uncovering the Mechanisms Driving Seasonal Polio Incidence: A Modeling Approach Towards Endgame Strategies

NIH RePORTER · NIH · F32 · $23,745 · view on reporter.nih.gov ↗

Abstract

Abstract Wild poliovirus (WPV), which is known to occur seasonally, is on the path towards eradication but continues to circulate in specific regions of the world. The Oral Polio Vaccine (OPV) can indirectly immunize unvaccinated individuals through the seasonal shedding of the vaccine. The seasonal timing of WPV transmission and OPV shedding occur synchronously. Using historical global datasets of reported WPV cases, and state-of-the-art modeling techniques, this work will examine three open questions regarding polio epidemiology: (I) does spatial variation exist in the seasonal timing of WPV outbreaks?, (II) what mechanism(s) are associated with this seasonality?, and (III) how can we improve the global monitoring of polio and expedite final eradication? I take advantage of a recently digitized, spatially resolved, historical dataset of reported WPV infections spanning the 20th century in the United States to examine these questions. I will also include 20th century WPV case data from various African, South American, Middle Eastern, and European countries once the U.S. models are parameterized. The results of this work will diagnose which environmental, demographic, or social factors are most strongly tied to seasonal WPV outbreaks. Understanding when and where a WPV outbreak is most likely to occur and when OPV shedding is at its maximum will allow immunization campaigns to optimize OPV coverage at the local level, and identify the optimal time of year to increase monitoring efforts for WPV. Following WPV eradication, this work can be used towards timing mop-up immunization campaigns, and assist in the monitoring efforts for vaccine-derived polio (cVDPV) strains.

Key facts

NIH application ID
9912092
Project number
5F32AI134016-03
Recipient
UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN AT ANN ARBOR
Principal Investigator
Kevin Michael Bakker
Activity code
F32
Funding institute
NIH
Fiscal year
2020
Award amount
$23,745
Award type
5
Project period
2018-05-01 → 2020-08-30