Advancing Public Literacy of Uncertainty in Science in the Context of Simulation-based North Atlantic Storm Forecasting

NSF Award Search · 04002526DB NSF STEM Education · $1,992,383 · view on nsf.gov ↗

Abstract

North Atlantic storms--such as hurricanes and Nor'easters--disrupt lives and impose significant burdens on coastal communities. Residents in these regions rely on storm forecasts to assess risk and decide on protective actions. To inform the public, news and social media outlets frequently use scientific visualizations--such as cones of uncertainty and spaghetti plots--to communicate storm trajectories and potential impacts. However, these visualizations are difficult for most adults to interpret, largely because they do not specify the exact time and location the storm is expected to reach in the future. This project addresses the need to improve public understanding of the uncertainties embedded in storm forecasts and visualizations by leveraging online simulations. The project team plans to build the North Atlantic Storm (NAS) Explorer that would allow participants to use interactive, web-based simulation to explore future paths of a storm in various scenarios based on the storm's real-time data. This project seeks to enhance public literacy in North Atlantic storm forecasting through a simulation-based experience that replicates key aspects of the scientists' storm modeling and forecasting practices. Adult participants will be engaged across three research studies. The first study focuses on developing survey instruments to measure Uncertainty Literacy in Atlantic Forecasting (ULAF), targeting three constructs: (1) interpreting probabilistic storm visualizations (e

Key facts

NSF award ID
2517113
Awardee
Concord Consortium (MA)
SAM.gov UEI
FY85DRNMJAM4
PI
Hee-Sun Lee
Primary program
04002526DB NSF STEM Education
All programs
PPSR- Public Participation in Scientific
Estimated total
$1,992,383
Funds obligated
$1,992,383
Transaction type
Standard Grant
Period
09/15/2025 → 08/31/2028